Stock of the Year 2008 - With Anid_007

nawatrader wrote:

india is still growin in a haphazard fashion...

Friend, this is the beauty of India. If everything was so predictable / systematic here, conditions would have been worse...

This year problem is for Congress and Finmin... if they think about votes, economy would be in danger, if they think of economic growth (call of the day!!) inflation trouble will jump in!

To me it seems this global trouble was started long ago, its only now that intl organizations are getting courage to face the shame of showing huge losses that they have built up becoz of the manipulations/concealings they did in the past year.

Thats why we predict a global economic shift. There is no such thing as global recession if you think carefully... since target of having a reduced growth itself hints that growth will be here in Asia!

Can we think of India becoming largest consumer and a huge market in itself? Then also think that organizations already settled here here will gain more than the MNCs. They will have more reasons to grow. We only rely on the world for Equity Finance... and that is a small part of economy.

Last year we had a fear that if foreign banks come in India, it would be a major trouble since even the biggest one in India is a peanut against global biggies. But they are bleeding now, and our banks have lots of good work to do still (For e.g. SBI entering singapore, ICI reaching out as well).

About Stocks: I think Satorio ne kamana to hai hi, so aaj nai to kal, ye is market se bhi kama ke dikhaenge... aur sabko giri market me bhi satta lagana sikhaaenge. Only difference would be that the new entrants might not have experienced the pain we are going through currently, so they will be trapped

ajitanand wrote:

nawatrader wrote:

india is still growin in a haphazard fashion...

Friend, this is the beauty of India. If everything was so predictable / systematic here, conditions would have been worse...

This year problem is for Congress and Finmin... if they think about votes, economy would be in danger, if they think of economic growth (call of the day!!) inflation trouble will jump in!

To me it seems this global trouble was started long ago, its only now that intl organizations are getting courage to face the shame of showing huge losses that they have built up becoz of the manipulations/concealings they did in the past year.

Thats why we predict a global economic shift. There is no such thing as global recession if you think carefully... since target of having a reduced growth itself hints that growth will be here in Asia!

Can we think of India becoming largest consumer and a huge market in itself? Then also think that organizations already settled here here will gain more than the MNCs. They will have more reasons to grow. We only rely on the world for Equity Finance... and that is a small part of economy.

Last year we had a fear that if foreign banks come in India, it would be a major trouble since even the biggest one in India is a peanut against global biggies. But they are bleeding now, and our banks have lots of good work to do still (For e.g. SBI entering singapore, ICI reaching out as well).

About Stocks: I think Satorio ne kamana to hai hi, so aaj nai to kal, ye is market se bhi kama ke dikhaenge... aur sabko giri market me bhi satta lagana sikhaaenge. Only difference would be that the new entrants might not have experienced the pain we are going through currently, so they will be trapped

I don’t know if the problem will continue for a longer
duration than 6 months, but one thing is for sure that the great propaganda
game of our fund houses is proving to be their own undoing. Just check the drop
in NAV of MFs.



You will always find two schools of thought- The first one will emphasize on
the Positive aspect of market and the other one on the impending problem.
And Money is being made from F&O in bothway slide of the index.




Make a note of discussions that our business channel shows
on daily basis. You will find once market reaches a temporary high zone, the focus
will be turned to pessimistic advisors and their interview will be shown round the
clock to create a panic in retailers mind and the sell of starts whenever some
negative cues is obtained from domestic or international market.


And once market sheds some points (New joiner Retailers are trapped in higher
level because of lack experience)..Suddenly you will find all the positive news
pouring in, people saying no such big problem, Indian growth story intact etc.

I have been watching the same pattern since last 2 years.

Share market is all about Money making, and the index are sentiment
sensitive. So if you have access to media, your job is easy to manipulate the
actual truth.


Same thing happened this time when index was at 21k Level, all the negative propaganda
started when it dropped to 18k the valuations suddenly was 'So Perfect to Buy'...I am happy that it finally went to some 16k level..And
this time those Bunch of Monkeys are also trapped with us.


Keep patience and don’t panic. Things should be fine soon.

Well, today I sold a major part of my portfolio (all frontliners ici, dlf, powergrid). since i could not see all the profits that I was seeing on my portfolio, being washed off day by day.

Till today morning inside I was having a feeling it is too late now, damage is already done.

And now after selling, I am feeling I lost patience and did this in a hurry may be. Dow Jones is Green and in a big manner I am happy to see this!

But if I would have waited, things could have been better tomorrow. Tomorrow Indian market would be greener, no bad news would come in.

So Anid, please advise, what should I do now? Should I jump in again and buy the front liners at a bargain if possible? or wait now?

I feel a bounce is expected in Indian Markets tomorrow due to the following reasons.

1. All asian markets ended todays trade in green except India.
2. US market opened in green and is now going strong in green.
3. Reliance Power IPO balance money is refunded to retailers which was sucked from the market and is expected to return back to the market.
4. Current valuations look more attractive.
5. Already we have falled down a lot and no much downside left.
6. Some buying were seen in front line stocks today.
7. India's Fundamentals have not changed as it happened in US and some part of Asia.

(Above all one has to keep in mind that buying and selling is a part of the market action and this is what market is all about. Nothing to panic)

So let's all hope for the best to happen.

Anid_007 wrote:

Well I am not in favor of offloading all my stock now. Infact when I bought on Portfolio V2, in 2 Lakhs Slab, I have some of those picks on profit.

I feel that the market is oversold. The only bad thing is that the recent fall has ruined the confidence of retail investors. It is going to take some time (at least 1-2 quarters) to regain some momentum, or unless the FIIs starts pouring money once again on some unexpected good news from West.

I didn't sell yesterday. Looking at Dow and Asian market, it may be a good decision, atleast for today .

Also read this some where, Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1. - Warren Buffett

linsuresh wrote:

I feel a bounce is expected in Indian Markets tomorrow due to the following reasons.

3. Reliance Power IPO balance money is refunded to retailers which was sucked from the market and is expected to return back to the market.

5. Already we have falled down a lot and no much downside left.

I don't agree with these points though i agree that we can expect a market bounce today. Retailers refund money is already into the market as the refunds were in people bank accounts starting Feb 1st. I bought some of mine with the refund.

Falling so much can't be a reason for bounce(nothing bad in hoping) because people lost so much due to the fall and needs sometime to get the same buying power for retailers. Some are still suffacating at higher levels. Of course FII's can change things.

Just my view friend, no offense.

ajitanand wrote:

Well, today I sold a major part of my portfolio (all frontliners ici, dlf, powergrid). since i could not see all the profits that I was seeing on my portfolio, being washed off day by day.

Till today morning inside I was having a feeling it is too late now, damage is already done.

And now after selling, I am feeling I lost patience and did this in a hurry may be. Dow Jones is Green and in a big manner I am happy to see this!

But if I would have waited, things could have been better tomorrow. Tomorrow Indian market would be greener, no bad news would come in.

So Anid, please advise, what should I do now? Should I jump in again and buy the front liners at a bargain if possible? or wait now?

I dont know at what level you sold out your stock..if its too low then you already made a mistake. Wts the hurry?
Stay calm, there is no need to check your portfolio everyday when market sentiment is so negative, you will only get frustarted and one bad day you will sell all your holding in a haste.

Wtevere is done is done--well you may buy again, try to pick value picks fom power and Oil n Gas sectors

Anid_007 wrote:

I dont know at what level you sold out your stock..if its too low then you already made a mistake. Wts the hurry?
Stay calm, there is no need to check your portfolio everyday when market sentiment is so negative, you will only get frustarted and one bad day you will sell all your holding in a haste.

Wtevere is done is done--well you may buy again, try to pick value picks fom power and Oil n Gas sectors

ICI I sold @1060, L&T @ 3250, Powergrid @ 98.50, DLF @ 796.

Even today diff is not more than 3-4%. Thats why I was asking. Rest of my portfolio is deep in red 40-50% down.

So can you advise, which should I try to add?

NTPC @ 190
DLF @ 816
ICI @ 1106
POWER GRID @ 99
RELIND @ < 2500
LARSEN @ < 3500
GMR INFRA @ < 152
JP Asso (already have at 470 levels) @ < 290

Or should I wait more and wait for some fall some day in coming week (would not like this and dont even expect)?

ajitanand wrote:

Anid_007 wrote:

I dont know at what level you sold out your stock..if its too low then you already made a mistake. Wts the hurry?
Stay calm, there is no need to check your portfolio everyday when market sentiment is so negative, you will only get frustarted and one bad day you will sell all your holding in a haste.

Wtevere is done is done--well you may buy again, try to pick value picks fom power and Oil n Gas sectors

ICI I sold @1060, L&T @ 3250, Powergrid @ 98.50, DLF @ 796.

Even today diff is not more than 3-4%. Thats why I was asking. Rest of my portfolio is deep in red 40-50% down.

So can you advise, which should I try to add?

NTPC @ 190
DLF @ 816
ICI @ 1106
POWER GRID @ 99
RELIND @ < 2500
LARSEN @ < 3500
GMR INFRA @ < 152
JP Asso (already have at 470 levels) @ < 290

Or should I wait more and wait for some fall some day in coming week (would not like this and dont even expect)?

Yes for NTPC, GMR Infra,Jp Asso, Larsen (if < 3350)

I am not sure if its rumour or a breaking news that Taj Express Highway project which was one of the biggest project under J P Asso is planned to give to some other company, and the stock had a fall of around 10%+ today, CMP 265. Should this be still a buy call?

BlackTiger wrote:

I am not sure if its rumour or a breaking news that Taj Express Highway project which was one of the biggest project under J P Asso is planned to give to some other company, and the stock had a fall of around 10%+ today, CMP 265. Should this be still a buy call?

Ohh my!!

Can you tell me the source please? And I feel you are talking about the Ganga Express Highway Project worth over 30K crore (actually tip of iceberg). No?


Anid, Thanks for the suggestion. Glad you answered so promptly

Here is the full story... The project is Taj ExpressWay

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/news/jp-asso-to-look-at-value-unlockingjp-infra/13/19/325918


Buy @ 265

The company is doing good and as far as loosing and gaining project is concerned --it happens with all organisations.

And it is not a project loss, rather transferring some of it to another group of Jp (Infra)..so its perfectly fine.

Its good that the scrip is down on this rumor (or the breaking news--if confirmed) --you can get it in more discounted price...its a buy call from me for sure (if you are in double mind, wait for couple of days and check if the downslide in this stock is over--and then enter)

Looks like the stage is all set for new high--the expectation from budget is high--Hopefully FM will not disappoint us.

The investors,who bought during the panic sessions of market, when it was sliding everyday, are going to get huge profit.

I am not on the same view. I still think that the wrost is not yet over. I agree that the budget would have some relief to investor, however post budget a correction is expected which will be a decline for buying new stocks. On each dip we will have to accumalate new stocks. The nifty must test 5000 or 5050 which is the signal to invest more.

BlackTiger wrote:

I am not on the same view. I still think that the wrost is not yet over. I agree that the budget would have some relief to investor, however post budget a correction is expected which will be a decline for buying new stocks. On each dip we will have to accumalate new stocks. The nifty must test 5000 or 5050 which is the signal to invest more.

Nifty re-testing of 5050 or even 4950 is very much possible, but I dont think that frontline stocks are going to see much lower level than what you had during the last crash, which I termed as buying opportunity at that time. Market will recover soon and in a rapid way..let us see.

DOW DOWN OVER 300 POINTS...........NASDAQ OVER 60.....AS ON 02/29/2008 ........
PREPARE FOR MORE DOWNFALL TOMM.............

Hi,
Anid
Yesterday late afternoon and today morning volumes have really picked up.
also most of the circuit stocks like reliance infra have come out of their lower circuit.
although DOW is still going down and down .............i think there has to be point
where indian market will have to stop following DOW and trade according to its own
fundamentals ........do u think we r near that point.

kapil

heey anid where r u budddy??? no participationn???

Hi Dude,
I am checking the status everyday. But Don't want to post any positive comment about the market right now. I am eagerly waiting for the US Economic Data for April 08. Right now it is better to wait and watch.

Regards,
Anid

Look like market is heading for 12k mark!!

Dont put any new bet now. Stay away. Things are really getting bad day by day.

Regd,
Anid

Dear Anid

Thats a real bad news ... straight to 12000!
If that is the case we might as well book loses now...At 12000 I am sure I would be 100% down in my portfolio!!!

shrirang wrote:

Dear Anid

Thats a real bad news ... straight to 12000!
If that is the case we might as well book loses now...At 12000 I am sure I would be 100% down in my portfolio!!!

No point in booking loss either. Just keep the things as they are. Things should be fine by the 3rd Quarter it seems as we are going have US election by year end.

Try buy some more when it reaches 12000 mark. I will update the info at that time regarding which share to buy.

I am also bankrupt this time. I have invested my last penny in Portfolio V2 and some badly stuck in Portfolio V1 .
Me and my team has conducted 1 month watch on idex movement and selling pattern. We advise

1. Dont Book loss, keep them on wait phase.

2. No new buy..stay away from market as of now.

Regards,
Anid

I would agree with Anid on this. No point in booking loss, for another month time we could see ups & down and as Anid said we might also taste 12K which would be really bad. But you should also remember that even after so many negative news in the Market the volumes of trading has not been that great so nither the selling is happening in huge volumes nor the buying.

rather than saying that we are into a bearish market, we should still consider this as Correction which is little deeper...

Also things to know is

Who is Selling ? Is it Institutions, retailers, Fund Managers ???? No one has clear idea as everyone is with same mind that rather than booking loss wait and watch.

If the money is taken out of Equities where is it been dumped? My guess is in Commodities, if you see the prices of Gold, Crude, Copper, Silver, jeera they are raising like equities some time back. they are raising without any reason, we haven't see demand of Gold in the market but still Gold price is going higher and higher...

If you see history trend, Gold price is always directly proportional to Crude. And thats why its rising...